World: All grains production, consumption, end stocks expected to grow dramatically but barley figures are almost unchanged from 2015/16

Global grains production, consumption and carry-over stocks have grown dramatically since a few years. Figures for barley in 2016/17, however, are forecast at practically the same level as in 2015/16.

Farmers’ incomes, unrewarding in Continental Europe and the United States, have, however, remained positive in some major production countries, where currencies devalued strongly against the U.S. dollar, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their February report.

During the past two months good to excellent crops have been collected in the southern hemisphere, adding pressure on grain markets.

There were inundations in Argentina, and a strong winter in Europe. Snowcover protected winter crops in most regions. If there are any damages, they do not look severe enough yet to change the outlook for another good crop year with rising and burdening stocks.

A year ago Argentina and Brazil harvested poor corn and bean crops, and in summer of 2016 France collected a particularly bad grain crop. It shifted export business to the Black Sea and the USA. American sales of wheat, corn and soybeans are far ahead of last year‘s figures; it is anticipated, though, that South American shipments will catch up in the coming months. Nevertheless price levels recovered since early December, by USD 15/20 per ton for U.S. grains, by smaller margins for Black Sea and EU wheat and barley.

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